| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | UT Martin | 27-7 | 1413.7 | +0.0 | 1413.7 | 37.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Oregon | 3-69 | 1413.7 | -2.2 | 1411.5 | 3.5% |
| 5 | Sep 19 2025 | L | Tulsa | 12-19 | 1411.5 | -76.4 | 1335.1 | 86.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Baylor | 27-45 | 1335.1 | -19.1 | 1316.0 | 17.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Arizona | 13-41 | 1316.0 | -14.1 | 1301.9 | 21.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Houston | 17-39 | 1301.9 | -23.7 | 1278.2 | 22.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 17-49 | 1278.2 | -15.8 | 1262.4 | 14.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 0-42 | 1262.4 | -4.8 | 1257.6 | 7.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Kansas | 21-38 | 1257.6 | -11.5 | 1246.1 | 17.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Kansas State | 6-14 | 1246.1 | -12.4 | 1233.7 | 11.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | UCF | 14-17 | 1233.7 | -20.1 | 1213.6 | 29.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Iowa State | 13-20 | 1213.6 | -7.2 | 1206.4 | 6.4% |